BOVINE Tuberculosis cases could be reduced by a third if badger culling went ahead in West Wales, a paper produced by the Farmers' Union of Wales (FUW) has claimed.

The paper, prepared by the union's agricultural policy director Dr Nicholas Fenwick, uses computer modelling and the results of previous scientific studies to predict the outcome of badger culling in a number of areas.

It suggests that a badger cull in north Pembrokeshire could reduce bTB herd incidences by 30 per cent during a five-year cull, and by 32 per cent in a three-and-a-half-year period following culling.

National Assembly plans to hold a pilot cull in part of north Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire were dropped earlier this month following a successful appeal by the Badger Trust.

The FUW's bTB spokesman, Carmarthen dairy farmer Brian Walters, said: "There is only one approach which has been shown scientifically to reduce bTB incidences in hotspot areas where bTB is endemic in badgers, and that is culling."

He added: "We know that the chances of a confirmed bTB case in cattle herds fell by between 62 per cent and 95 per cent in the Irish badger culling trials and we would expect a well planned cull in north Pembrokeshire, coupled with legislation to discourage interference and obstruction, to achieve results closer to those figures rather the English ones."

He added: "Without decisive, science-based action we will not see the outcome we all want, which is cattle and badgers free of disease. This paper adds to the already large base of scientific evidence which shows that the Welsh Assembly Government is right to pursue a badger cull."